...for the AFC playoffs and Big Game:
85% to beat (probably) Jacksonville, after upgrading a bit in case it's a worse team.
66% to beat (probably) Indianapolis (ditto)
80% to beat Dallas or whomever they somehow fall apart against
.85 * .66 * .8 = .4488
I stress that those are very high probabilities against talented teams, indicating my acceptance that New England is probably the strongest team in league history. And still, the math bears out that even money against a Pats championship is a good bet. In any case, the 1 to 5 odds at the first website I checked are completely ridiculous. That means a 5/6 or 83% probability of them winning all three games. And look at the kind of numbers you'd need to get that:
97% game 1
90% game 2
95% game 3
Numbers in that range are just batshit crazy for the NFL playoffs, even when none of the teams are as strong as the defending champions now are.
P.S. To put those last numbers in perspective, a team with a 97% advantage would be expected to go undefeated in another 16-game season with a probability of 61%. That's a whole season of the current likes of Jacksonville, San Diego, and Pittsburgh, with no bottom feeders, 61% to go 16-0. Similarly, a 90% advantage corresponds to a 19% probability of 16-0. Patriots beating Colts sixteen straight times, with a probability of almost 1/5. Is the insanity clear?
At the limits of reason, then, New England is equally as likely to win this year's Super Bowl as not. Naturally, if they do, it will be deemed inevitable, in retrospect. Human nature 101.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
3 comments:
Here's the thing. This is not a coin flip. When the warriors take the field they don't play according to probability. They are either confident or they are not. They are either intimidated or they are not. They are either on a mission or they are not. The wind is with them or it is not.
There is too much humanity involved here.
I respect your effort and your science, but ranging over such a short period of dramatic storyline, it is misplaced.
On the other hand ....
You're taking the gambler's perspective, and talking only about betting against New England, not for any other team.
Shit. That is too easy.
Dude don't post no more.
Post a Comment